CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-06-27T02:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-06-27T02:00Z
CME Note: CME observed leaving the western hemisphere, evidenced initially by coronal hole dimming on SDO AIA193. Analysis suggests a possible Earth-directed component, observed from around 27/0200Z quite clearly on SOHO C2/C3 and Stereo A COR2. Note from T. Nieves-Chincilla and L. Jian on CME arrival signature at L1: a clear flux rope on 07-01 from ~2:30 to ~14:15 with North polarity and some erosion at the front. This flux rope is embedded within the fast wind part of a CIR.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-07-01T02:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-07-01T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 27/1717 UTC
Radial velocity (km/s): 354 km/s
Longitude (deg): 32W
Latitude (deg): 1S
Half-angular width (deg): 32 deg

Notes: Stealthy CME observed leaving the western hemisphere, with a possible Earth-directed component. First observed as an area of dimming on the SDO AIA193 image, then on SOHO C2/C3 and Stereo A COR2. Quite a good fit on the SWPC CAT tool. Some of the Met Office Ensemble members have an Earth arrival on the 1st July, but low confidence in timing and whether it will be detectable, given it is close to the background solar winds. 
Space weather advisor: MOSWOC forecasters

Lead Time: 61.92 hour(s)
Difference: -9.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2021-06-28T12:35Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy